"Thunderstorm" of Silicon Valley banks has spread to the oil market. Tonight, the oil price will be lowered, and we will refuel later!
The oil price has fallen! Oil prices are down tonight! Go and refuel on the weekend! Currently, the change rate of crude oil is -1.43%, and it is expected to decrease by 70 yuan/ton, or 0.06~0.07 yuan/liter. Oil price adjustment time: 24:00 on March 17th. (At 24:00 on Friday evening today) Don't worry about refueling, it's cheaper to go refueling tomorrow!
[International Crude Oil Information] As of yesterday, the price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery fell by 3.76 US dollars, or 4.85%, to close at 73.69 US dollars per barrel; Light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Stock Exchange fell $3.72, or 5.22%, to close at $67.61 per barrel.
[International Oil Market News] This week, the US Energy Information Administration said that it had improved capacity utilization as much as possible, but crude oil inventories continued to rise significantly last week. In March, crude oil inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels to 480.1 million barrels. It is expected that the average global oil demand will reach 102 million barrels per day in 2023, which translates into an increase of about 2 million barrels per day. However, in the past year, the global oil demand increased by 2.3 million barrels per day.
In the international crude oil market, since the current pricing cycle, panic has spread like a "domino" to the oil market, influenced by the news that two banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of the United States, have successively announced closures in just three days.
Subsequently, the share price of Credit Suisse, the world's fifth largest financial group, plummeted by 13.94% on March 15th. On the same day, as the market was already nervous about the spread of risk from the closure of multiple US banks, Credit Suisse's largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, refused to provide further financial assistance, reigniting investor concerns about the risks of the European and American banking systems, causing a collective decline in European stocks.
In the short term, the "explosion" of Silicon Valley banks and multiple banks in the United States could trigger an economic recession, even concerns about the financial crisis, resulting in a pressure drop in oil prices. However, in the long run, bank bankruptcy will not form a huge black swan event, and the possibility of causing a financial crisis is not very high. After the oil price has passed the short-term pressure period, the crude oil price may show a trend of first suppressing and then increasing
Summary of changes in oil prices during the year: two rises, two falls, and two stalls
This year, the domestic oil price has presented a pattern of "two rises, one falls, and two stalls". The conversion of No. 92 gasoline and No. 95 gasoline has been increased by 0.20 yuan and 0.21 yuan respectively. After the sixth round of adjustment, if there is no accident, the domestic oil price will be "2 up, 2 down, 2 stranded" pattern. As for the domestic oil price, compared with last year, this year's oil price does not have the conditions to continue to surge or fall to a very deep low. Throughout the year, the frequency of grounding may be more frequent.